Tag Archives: statistics
Constraining the carbon cycle in a land surface model – a talk for EGU23
I’m attending the EGU 2023 assembly this week, and gave a talk on our latest paper Constraining the carbon cycle in JULES-ES1.0. Attending online works fine, but doesn’t give you all the bonuses of meeting in person, getting the lowdown on the coolest talks coming up, and catching up with old colleagues and friends. One […]
Visualising input spaces using emulators
In a previous post, I looked at some of the ways we could visualise the input space of climate models, when they are constrained to produce behaviour that looks something like the real world. I used parallel co-ordinates plots and pairs plots to visualise the high (32) dimensional input space of the JULES land surface […]
Sensitivity analysis with R
After last week’s post, I thought it might be useful to have some practical examples of how to do sensitivity analysis (SA) of complex models (like climate models) with an emulator. SA is one of those things that everyone wants to do at some point, and I’ll be able to point people here for code […]
Internal variability in surface temperature and the hiatus
Our paper Quantifying the likelihood of a continued hiatus in global warming is published today in Nature Climate Change. Here is the New Scientist take, the Carbon Brief take, and the Met Office Research News article. Chris Roberts took on a huge task, processing massive amounts of data in the CMIP5 climate model archive, and leading […]
Why model climate?
I wrote a talk on climate modelling, aimed at the interested-but-non-specialist public. Here it is. It touches on: 1) The choices we have to make as a society. 2) The difficulty of doing controlled experiments with a single Earth. 3) The idea of a climate model. 4) A really simple climate model from first principles. […]
A brief comment on timing
In a comment on Mora et al. (2013), we highlight some errors the authors make in calculating and expressing the uncertainty in the timing of “climate departure” – the time at which a particular place on Earth will see a climate unprecedented in the historical record. There is a reply by the authors of the […]
The great thing about UQ is we know how to spell it
It’s been pretty busy round these parts, here are a few notes from the last month or so. Natural variability – Energy budget Our paper on natural variability in the Earth’s energy budget got a nice write-up from John Abraham in the Guardian. Mat Collins happened to be passing, and took a nice picture of […]
A brief observation on statistical significance
This has been on my mind for a while. I think the observation is best summed up as: If somebody asks if something is statistically significant, they probably don’t know what it means. I don’t mean to offend anyone, and I can think of plenty of counter examples*, but this is borne out of long […]
Constraining climate models with observations
This post is an introduction to our new paper, The potential of an observational data set for calibration of a computationally expensive computer model, for non specialists. The paper is in open review, and so can be commented on by anybody. We would appreciate feedback, so please consider making a comment at the open review […]
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