Work

Some recent work that I’ve been involved with, along with media coverage and talks.

Recent Publications

McNeall, D., Williams, J., Betts, R., Booth, B., Challenor, P., Good, P., and Wiltshire, A.: Correcting a bias in a climate model with an augmented emulator, Geoscientific Model Development https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/13/2487/2020/ (Discussion paper, 2019 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-171)

Reconciling Observation and Model Trends in North Atlantic Surface CO2 | A. Lebehot et al. Global Biogechemical Cycles, 2019 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GB006186

Finding plausible and diverse variants of a climate model. Part II: development and validation of methodology | Karmalkar, A.V., Sexton, D.M.H., Murphy, J.M. et al. Clim Dyn (2019) 53: 847. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04617-3

Reducing climate model biases by exploring parameter space with large ensembles of climate model simulations and statistical emulation | S.li et al. Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3017–3043, 2019 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3017-2019

Parametric Sensitivity of Vegetation Dynamics in the TRIFFID Model and the Associated Uncertainty in Projected Climate Change Impacts on Western U.S. Forests | L.Hawkins et al. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001577, 2019

(Discussion paper) Improving climate model accuracy by exploring parameter space with an O(10⁵) member ensemble and emulator. S. Li et al. Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-198, in review, 2018.

How much CO2 at 1.5 and 2 degrees? R.A. Betts & D. McNeall, Nature Climate Change 8 (7), 546, 2018

Predicting the targeting of tail-anchored proteins to subcellular compartments in mammalian cells | J. Costello et al. Journal of Cell Science, 2017, doi: 10.1242/jcs.200204

(Final Published paper) The impact of structural error on parameter constraint in a climate model | D. McNeall et al. Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 917-935, 2016

(Discussion paper) The impact of structural error on parameter constraint in a climate model | D. McNeall et al. Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., doi:10.5194/esd-2016-17, in review, 2016

The mechanisms of North Atlantic CO₂ uptake in a large Earth System Model ensemble | P. Halloran et al. Biogeosciences, 12, 4497-4508, doi:10.5194/bg-12-4497-2015, 2015.

Graphics: scrap rainbow colour scales | E.Hawkins et al. Nature, 519, 291 (2015)

Quantifying the likelihood of a continued hiatus in global warming | C.D. Roberts et al. Nature Climate Change, DOI:10.1038/nclimate2531 (2015)

(Discussion paper) The mechanisms of North Atlantic CO₂ uptake in a large Earth System Model ensemble | P. Halloran et al. Biogeosciences Discuss., 11, 14551-14585, doi:10.5194/bgd-11-14551-2014 (2014)

Uncertainties in the timing of unprecedented climates | E. Hawkins et al. Nature 511, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature13523 (2014)

Is the 2004–2012 reduction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation significant? | C. Roberts et al. GRL 41, DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059473 (2014)

Internal variability of Earth’s energy budget simulated by CMIP5 climate models | M.Palmer & D.McNeall Environ. Res. Lett. 9 034016 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034016 (2014)

Pause for thought | E. Hawkins et al. Nature Climate Change 4, 154–156 doi:10.1038/nclimate2150 (2014)

The potential of an observational data set for calibration of a computationally expensive computer model | D. McNeall et al. Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1715-1728, doi:10.5194/gmd-6-1715-2013 (2013)

The importance of population, climate change and CO₂ plant physiological forcing in determining future global water stress | A.Wiltshire et al. Global Environmental Change 23, 5, DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.06.005 (2013)

The impact of climate mitigation on projections of future drought | Taylor et al., Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2339-2358, doi:10.5194/hess-17-2339-2013 (2013)

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models | B.B.B. Booth et al., Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 95-108, doi:10.5194/esd-4-95-2013 (2013)