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Sensitivity analysis with R

After last week’s post, I thought it might be useful to have some practical examples of how to do sensitivity analysis (SA) of complex models (like climate models) with an emulator. SA is one of those things that everyone wants to do at some point, and I’ll be able to point people here for code […]

One-at-a-time sensitivity analysis

I use one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis all the time, but it’s not without it’s dangers. It looks like developers are ahead of the statisticians in useful illustrative examples. @ThePracticalDev @testobsessed — George Dinwiddie (@gdinwiddie) January 23, 2016 2 unit tests. 0 integration tests — The Practical Dev (@ThePracticalDev) January 14, 2016

Gaussian process emulator example

Here’s a little Gaussian process emulator example that I cooked up using the R package DiceKriging. The function is Higdon02, from this useful archive on simulation experiments. I’ve used a constant to initiate the model fit on the smallest data set: km(form=~1, …) rather than a linear term: km(form=~., …) as otherwise you end up […]

On tweeting conferences

So Mark Brandon, Sheldon Bacon and Gavin Schmidt have been threatened with a threat of potential legal action, possibly, for live tweeting a scientific meeting. Some details here and here, and under the rather brilliant hashtag #BrandonBergGate (geddit?). I’m with James Annan on this one*, but the whole thing has clearly eaten time, effort, and […]

Protected: Damages (from 2009)

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What got you into science?

I enjoyed watching Gavin Schmidt’s TED talk on climate models, and wondered if such a thing might inspire a new generation of climate modellers. Keen to find out about the way that others have wound up in science, and in rather a fit of whimsy, I asked a question on twitter: So, what got you […]

The great thing about UQ is we know how to spell it

It’s been pretty busy round these parts, here are a few notes from the last month or so. Natural variability – Energy budget Our paper on natural variability in the Earth’s energy budget got a nice write-up from John Abraham in the Guardian. Mat Collins happened to be passing, and took a nice picture of […]