After last week’s post, I thought it might be useful to have some practical examples of how to do sensitivity analysis (SA) of complex models (like climate models) with an emulator. SA is one of those things that everyone wants to do at some point, and I’ll be able to point people here for code […]
I use one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis all the time, but it’s not without it’s dangers. It looks like developers are ahead of the statisticians in useful illustrative examples. @ThePracticalDev @testobsessed pic.twitter.com/uKvhzoEPF7 — George Dinwiddie (@gdinwiddie) January 23, 2016 2 unit tests. 0 integration tests pic.twitter.com/V2Z9F4G1sJ — The Practical Dev (@ThePracticalDev) January 14, 2016
Here’s a little Gaussian process emulator example that I cooked up using the R package DiceKriging. The function is Higdon02, from this useful archive on simulation experiments. I’ve used a constant to initiate the model fit on the smallest data set: km(form=~1, …) rather than a linear term: km(form=~., …) as otherwise you end up […]
So Mark Brandon, Sheldon Bacon and Gavin Schmidt have been threatened with a threat of potential legal action, possibly, for live tweeting a scientific meeting. Some details here and here, and under the rather brilliant hashtag #BrandonBergGate (geddit?). I’m with James Annan on this one*, but the whole thing has clearly eaten time, effort, and […]
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I enjoyed watching Gavin Schmidt’s TED talk on climate models, and wondered if such a thing might inspire a new generation of climate modellers. Keen to find out about the way that others have wound up in science, and in rather a fit of whimsy, I asked a question on twitter: So, what got you […]
It’s been pretty busy round these parts, here are a few notes from the last month or so. Natural variability – Energy budget Our paper on natural variability in the Earth’s energy budget got a nice write-up from John Abraham in the Guardian. Mat Collins happened to be passing, and took a nice picture of […]
This year, I resolve to only submit any first author scientific papers* to journals that will publish them open access. I will actively encourage the first authors of any other papers in which I am a co-author, to submit them open access. Happy New Year. * I’m sure some wag will point out that I […]
I’ve been at the CliMathNet meeting all week, featuring the complementary set of people that I didn’t see at IMSC. Here is the talk that I’ll be giving this morning, explaining some of the ideas in our paper on potential constraint of climate models.