I’m pretty happy that our paper on finding the potential value of observations for constraining climate models, was published today in Geoscientific Model Development. I posted about the discussion paper here, and you can download a presentation describing the work here. The paper demonstrates a method for working out how useful a new observation might […]

I’ve been at a great workshop on statistical methods for process models (mostly of the Earth system), set up by Lindsay Lee, from Leeds. It was set up as an opportunity for modellers of many stripes to hear about some of the latest statistical techniques being applied to a range of domains, and I think […]

After the discussion started by Tamsin’s post on advocacy in climate science, I tweeted a bunch of reasons that you might not trust a climate scientist. The list is based on my own personal experiences, and isn’t scientific in any way. It was interesting then to see Liz Neely write about what science tells us […]

I enjoyed the discussion kicked of by Tamsin Edwards’ piece in the Guardian yesterday. Maybe I’d had too much coffee or something, but I found myself in opposition to many of the leaders of my field. Oliver Bothe wrote a good, immediate and thoughtful response. Given that he quotes a few of my tweets, I […]

I’ve been at the CliMathNet meeting all week, featuring the complementary set of people that I didn’t see at IMSC. Here is the talk that I’ll be giving this morning, explaining some of the ideas in our paper on potential constraint of climate models.

This is a nice short and pleasingly informal summary of the latest work on predictions of loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic, published in GRL. The paper is perhaps more useful as an up-to-date literature review than an analysis paper, which is perhaps a kinder way of saying what Stoat says. The paper […]

This post is an introduction to our new paper, The potential of an observational data set for calibration of a computationally expensive computer model, for non specialists. The paper is in open review, and so can be commented on by anybody. We would appreciate feedback, so please consider making a comment at the open review […]

Here is the text of an email that I sent to Doug Keenan on 25th January 2013. It sets out some of my personal thoughts on statistical modelling of trends in global mean temperature (or many of the other timeseries in the Earth system). I believe it has some bearing on this post at Bishop […]

This weekend, Ed pointed to the paper “Retrospective Prediction of the Global Warming Slowdown in the Past Decade”, in Nature SomethingOrOther*. Colour me slightly underwhelmed by the actual paper. The topic is important, and I’m sure they’re on to something. These things are often much more impressive if you have a real feel for the […]

I’ve moved the blog across from the soon-to-be-defunct posterous site. I wonder how many times I’ll have to do a similar thing in my lifetime.