Category Uncategorized

The great thing about UQ is we know how to spell it

It’s been pretty busy round these parts, here are a few notes from the last month or so. Natural variability – Energy budget Our paper on natural variability in the Earth’s energy budget got a nice write-up from John Abraham in the Guardian. Mat Collins happened to be passing, and took a nice picture of […]

A sciencey New Year’s resolution

This year, I resolve to only submit any first author scientific papers* to journals that will publish them open access. I will actively encourage the first authors of any other papers in which I am a co-author, to submit them open access. Happy New Year. * I’m sure some wag will point out that I […]


I’ve been at the CliMathNet meeting all week, featuring the complementary set of people that I didn’t see at IMSC. Here is the talk that I’ll be giving this morning, explaining some of the ideas in our paper on potential constraint of climate models.

Some more correspondence with Doug Keenan

Here is the text of an email that I sent to Doug Keenan on 25th January 2013. It sets out some of my personal thoughts on statistical modelling of trends in global mean temperature (or many of the other timeseries in the Earth system). I believe it has some bearing on this post at Bishop […]

Could we make “prediction” a reserved word?

This weekend, Ed pointed to the paper “Retrospective Prediction of the Global Warming Slowdown in the Past Decade”, in Nature SomethingOrOther*. Colour me slightly underwhelmed by the actual paper. The topic is important, and I’m sure they’re on to something. These things are often much more impressive if you have a real feel for the […]


I’ve moved the blog across from the soon-to-be-defunct posterous site. I wonder how many times I’ll have to do a similar thing in my lifetime.

Comment on Deltoid

Here is a comment that I left on this post at Deltoid: “I might be missing something here, but shouldn’t the green line and the blue line start from (approximately) the same place at the time of prediction? I’m assuming that the IPCC line starts f…