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I’ve been at the CliMathNet meeting all week, featuring the complementary set of people that I didn’t see at IMSC. Here is the talk that I’ll be giving this morning, explaining some of the ideas in our paper on potential constraint of climate models.

Some more correspondence with Doug Keenan

Here is the text of an email that I sent to Doug Keenan on 25th January 2013. It sets out some of my personal thoughts on statistical modelling of trends in global mean temperature (or many of the other timeseries in the Earth system). I believe it has some bearing on this post at Bishop […]

Could we make “prediction” a reserved word?

This weekend, Ed pointed to the paper “Retrospective Prediction of the Global Warming Slowdown in the Past Decade”, in Nature SomethingOrOther*. Colour me slightly underwhelmed by the actual paper. The topic is important, and I’m sure they’re on to something. These things are often much more impressive if you have a real feel for the […]


I’ve moved the blog across from the soon-to-be-defunct posterous site. I wonder how many times I’ll have to do a similar thing in my lifetime.

Comment on Deltoid

Here is a comment that I left on this post at Deltoid: “I might be missing something here, but shouldn’t the green line and the blue line start from (approximately) the same place at the time of prediction? I’m assuming that the IPCC line starts f…

The climate information problem

How do we provide the information that society needs to make decisions on climate mitigation and adaptation, with only a limited number of scientists and experts? A great thing about working in climate science, is that people care what you find ou…

The best climate science journals (according to google)

Google Scholar have announced a citation service. Not only do you get to look up the citation statistics of the journals, but they’ll also provide you with your personal stats. I’m writing at the moment, and wondering where to send stuff. Unfortun…

Ambiguity Aversion

It has long been known that people generally prefer a bet with known odds, to one where there is uncertainty in the odds. The classic example of this is a choice of two bets. Imagine two urns. In the first urn there are 100 balls, 50 white and 50 …

Cool science

Watching Stargazing Live last night, I was enthralled, and reminded of why I got into science in the first place. The science that they were talking about was cool. The great thing about astronomy is that it is huge, endless, exciting, available, …

Some correspondence with Doug Keenan

Below is my end of the correspondence that I had with Doug Keenan over the summer. This is being discussed slightly more widely now (e.g. here, here, here), so I thought it would be sensible to have it in the public domain. The first email is larg…