Category Climate

A brief observation on statistical significance

This has been on my mind for a while. I think the observation is best summed up as: If somebody asks if something is statistically significant, they probably don’t know what it means. I don’t mean to offend anyone, and I can think of plenty of counter examples*, but this is borne out of long […]

Why I don’t advocate for climate science policy

I was going to write a long essay on why I try to avoid advocating for any one particular policy for climate, but I think this probably makes the point fairly well. One of the funny things about the hoo-ha around Tamsin’s piece was that the reaction rather confirmed the point*. People hate hate HATE […]

How fast is Arctic sea ice refreezing this year?

Bishop Hill have a post stating “Isn’t the Arctic refreeze quick this year?” I’ve done a quick check on the rate that the ice is refreezing this winter, compared to the previous years. It’s not a terribly scientific method – just copying this years trajectory and moving it to match the previous years by eye. […]

On the value of observations

I’m pretty happy that our paper on finding the potential value of observations for constraining climate models, was published today in Geoscientific Model Development. I posted about the discussion paper here, and you can download a presentation describing the work here. The paper demonstrates a method for working out how useful a new observation might […]

Workshop on stats in process modelling

I’ve been at a great workshop on statistical methods for process models (mostly of the Earth system), set up by Lindsay Lee, from Leeds. It was set up as an opportunity for modellers of many stripes to hear about some of the latest statistical techniques being applied to a range of domains, and I think […]

10 reasons you might not trust a climate scientist (in no particular order)

After the discussion started by Tamsin’s post on advocacy in climate science, I tweeted a bunch of reasons that you might not trust a climate scientist. The list is based on my own personal experiences, and isn’t scientific in any way. It was interesting then to see Liz Neely write about what science tells us […]


I’ve been at the CliMathNet meeting all week, featuring the complementary set of people that I didn’t see at IMSC. Here is the talk that I’ll be giving this morning, explaining some of the ideas in our paper on potential constraint of climate models.

When will the summer Arctic be nearly ice free?

This is a nice short and pleasingly informal summary of the latest work on predictions of loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic, published in GRL. The paper is perhaps more useful as an up-to-date literature review than an analysis paper, which is perhaps a kinder way of saying what Stoat says. The paper […]