Tag Archives: uncertainty

A brief comment on timing

In a comment on Mora et al. (2013), we highlight some errors the authors make in calculating and expressing the uncertainty in the timing of  “climate departure” – the time at which a particular place on Earth will see a climate unprecedented in the historical record. There is a reply by the authors of the […]

Constraining climate models with observations

This post is an introduction to our new paper, The potential of an observational data set for calibration of a computationally expensive computer model, for non specialists. The paper is in open review, and so can be commented on by anybody. We would appreciate feedback, so please consider making a comment at the open review […]

Could we make “prediction” a reserved word?

This weekend, Ed pointed to the paper “Retrospective Prediction of the Global Warming Slowdown in the Past Decade”, in Nature SomethingOrOther*. Colour me slightly underwhelmed by the actual paper. The topic is important, and I’m sure they’re on to something. These things are often much more impressive if you have a real feel for the […]